国泰海通｜轻工：看好反内卷背景下浆纸产业链提价持续性

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry is facing persistent supply-demand contradictions, with paper prices and profitability at historically low levels, particularly for double glue paper and white card paper, which are currently experiencing losses in gross profit margins [1][3]. Group 1: Paper Price Trends - As of the first week of August, prices for double glue paper and white card paper have reached new lows, with gross profit margins falling below the 20th percentile of the historical ten-year range [1]. - The leading box and corrugated paper producers have implemented multiple price increases, with cumulative price hikes for kraft linerboard ranging from 30 to 140 CNY per ton and for corrugated paper from 60 to 140 CNY per ton since late July [1]. - The price increases have accelerated due to rising costs, particularly the steady increase in domestic waste paper prices, prompting smaller manufacturers to follow suit [1]. Group 2: Profitability and Cost Dynamics - The profitability of corrugated paper is beginning to recover as its price increases are catching up with rising costs, although overall profitability remains constrained for high-end box paper due to limited price increases [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw peak profitability for box and corrugated paper, but profitability declined in July as paper prices did not keep pace with cost increases [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook for Pulp - The U.S. has exempted Brazilian pulp from a 40% tariff, which has positively influenced market expectations for pulp prices [2]. - Major pulp producers like Bracell and Suzano have announced production cuts, which are expected to support price increases in the pulp market [2]. - Domestic and international pulp manufacturers have raised prices, with spot prices for broadleaf pulp increasing by 125-150 CNY per ton since early July [2]. Group 4: Future Expectations - The paper price increases are expected to continue, driven by seasonal demand and cost pressures, with the potential for improved profitability as the price-cost gap widens [3]. - The production of double glue paper has decreased by 11.9% year-on-year from January to July 2025, indicating a tightening supply in the market [3]. - If pulp prices rise in the future, leading paper manufacturers are likely to pass on these costs, encouraging smaller manufacturers to follow suit during peak demand seasons [3].