国泰海通｜策略：风偏回升权益涨，油价大跌英镑强

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent shift in global risk appetite driven by expectations of a change in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to a rebound in major stock indices and significant movements in commodities and currencies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major stock indices globally experienced a rebound, with the Russian RTS index leading gains due to anticipated meetings between US and Russian leaders [2]. - In developed markets, US stocks saw a comprehensive recovery, with the Nasdaq rising by 3.9%, S&P 500 by 2.4%, and Dow Jones by 1.3% [2]. - Emerging markets also showed strong performance, particularly the Russian RTS which increased by 7.9%, and Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index which surged by 6.0% [2]. Group 2: Bond Market - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull steepening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward and the 10Y-2Y spread widening [3]. - In contrast, the US bond market showed a "bear flattening" characteristic, with the yield curve moving upward and a near 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3]. Group 3: Commodities and Currencies - Oil prices faced downward pressure due to OPEC+'s decision to significantly increase production in September, reversing previous cuts and alleviating supply concerns [3]. - The British pound strengthened despite the Bank of England's cautious rate cut, as inflation rates rebounded to 3.6% in May and June [3].