中金 | AI进化论（13）：算力，后GPT-5时代的“硬通货”

Core Viewpoint - The global large model industry continues to develop rapidly post "DeepSeek innovation heat," with an acceleration in model iterations and an increase in computing power demand driven by token consumption [2][7][25]. Group 1: Global Model Updates and Computing Demand - In Q2 2025, major model companies like Google and OpenAI released significant updates, including OpenAI's GPT-5, which improved efficiency and reduced API costs, thus increasing computing power demand [3][13][25]. - The release of GPT-5 marked a shift towards efficiency, with a notable reduction in token consumption and a context window expansion to 400K tokens, enhancing application capabilities and driving further demand for computing resources [18][22][25]. - The North American model updates have created a preliminary closed loop in computing power demand, with companies like Google and Anthropic seeing rapid increases in token consumption [3][30]. Group 2: Domestic Model Development and Market Dynamics - Domestic companies, while still trailing behind in model capabilities, have made significant strides since 2025, with firms like ByteDance and Kimi releasing updated models that have increased computing power consumption [4][36]. - The domestic AI chip industry is evolving from single-chip solutions to system-level designs, supporting the iteration and deployment of large models [4][43]. - The anticipated updates from open-source models like DeepSeek in Q3 2025 could reignite investment sentiment in the domestic AI industry [4][36]. Group 3: Token Consumption Trends - Token consumption has surged globally, with major players like Google, Microsoft, and ByteDance experiencing significant increases in token usage since 2025 [27][30]. - Google's AI Overview feature has been a key driver of its token consumption growth, leveraging its vast user base to generate high-frequency AI summaries [30][31]. - The current market dynamics reflect a balance between free access to AI technologies and the monetization of high-value applications, with paid products showing a clear differentiation in performance and reliability [34][35]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The ongoing model updates and the increasing efficiency of token usage are expected to drive sustained growth in computing power demand, with both cloud and edge computing becoming critical [22][24][36]. - The competitive landscape suggests that companies with robust financial backing, like Google and Meta, will continue to push for model updates, further enhancing computing demand [26][30]. - The domestic AI industry is poised for growth as local firms enhance their capabilities and seek to capture market share in the evolving landscape of AI applications [4][43].