中金：核心通胀反弹或加剧联储内部分歧

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the U.S. inflation is entering a structural upward phase, with core CPI rebounding to over 3%, moving further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target, which may increase internal disagreements within the Fed regarding policy decisions [2][5][6]. Inflation Data Summary - In July, the core CPI adjusted month-on-month increased by 0.3%, and year-on-year rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, exceeding market expectations. Overall CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and remained at 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below expectations [2][5]. - The inflation characteristics in July showed moderate goods prices and a rebound in services. Tariff costs are still being passed on to consumers, but some prices have started to decline [3][4]. Goods Price Analysis - The core goods price index increased by 0.2% month-on-month, consistent with the previous month. Notable increases were seen in furniture (+0.9%), curtains (+1.2%), and audio-visual equipment (+0.8%). However, some previously rising categories like appliances (-2.2%) and men's clothing (-1.3%) showed weakness [3]. - Used car prices rebounded to a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, while new car prices stabilized, indicating a potential shift in pricing strategies by manufacturers due to institutionalized tariff policies [3][5]. Services Price Analysis - The supercore price index, excluding rent, increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with significant contributions from previously declining airfares, which surged by 4%. This suggests a stabilization in travel activities [4][5]. - Other service prices, including vehicle maintenance (+1.2%) and medical services (+0.8%), continued to rise, indicating persistent inflationary pressures in the service sector [4]. Overall Inflation Outlook - The July CPI data does not alter the outlook for U.S. inflation, which is expected to rise structurally. The effects of tariff cost pass-through are anticipated to become more evident in the coming months, with core goods inflation facing upward risks [5][6]. - The Fed may struggle to reach a consensus on policy direction due to the mixed signals from inflation data, leading to increased volatility in the market [6].