关税影响温和——7月美国通胀数据解读【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Inflation Overview - The July CPI year-on-year growth rate remained stable at 2.7%, with a slight month-on-month deceleration to 0.2% [2][10] - Core CPI year-on-year growth increased to 3.1%, while core services remained unchanged [4][10] Energy and Food Prices - Energy inflation decreased, with the CPI energy component showing a year-on-year decline of -1.6%, and gasoline prices dropping by 9.5% [6] - Food prices also saw a cooling effect, contributing to the overall inflation dynamics [10] Service Sector Dynamics - Core services year-on-year growth was stable at 3.6%, but month-on-month growth rose to 0.4%, driven by increases in medical and transportation services [7] - Housing inflation remained steady, with owner-equivalent rent slightly decreasing to 4.1% [7] Impact of Tariffs - Tariffs had a mild impact on commodity prices, with core commodity year-on-year growth rising to 1.2% [9] - The prices of used cars surged by 4.8%, influenced by tariffs, although a potential decline in used car prices is expected in the coming months [9] Market Reactions and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the inflation data release, U.S. stock indices rose, bond yields fell, and the dollar index decreased, leading to a 94% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [10] - The average expected rate cuts for the year are approximately 2.4 times [10] Consumer Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation expectation among consumers dropped to 4.5%, while the five-year expectation fell to 3.4%, indicating a decline in inflation concerns [12]