3%的GDP，是美国经济的真繁荣还是假热闹？

Core Viewpoint - The 3.0% annualized GDP growth in Q2 2025 appears strong but is misleading, as it is significantly influenced by a sharp decline in imports, which artificially inflates the GDP figure without indicating real domestic production and consumption growth [2][5]. Economic Indicators - The more reliable indicator of economic health, "Real final sales to private domestic purchasers," shows only a 1.2% growth in Q2 2025, down from 1.9% in Q1 2025, indicating underlying economic weakness despite the headline GDP figure [5][6]. - Alaska's economic performance, which often serves as an early indicator for the U.S. economy, shows consecutive declines in real GDP for 2023 and 2024 (-1.4% and -0.1% respectively), with a further slight decline of 0.4% in Q1 2025 [6][7]. Inflation and Employment - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July 2025, with core CPI increasing by 3.1%, suggesting inflation is under control; however, the job market is cooling, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% [7][10]. - Labor force participation has decreased to 62.2%, indicating potential long-term challenges in the employment sector [7]. Bond Market Signals - The yield curve remains inverted, with the 3-month Treasury yield exceeding the 10-year yield, typically signaling market expectations of an economic slowdown or recession [10][12]. - The total U.S. national debt has reached $36.2 trillion, constituting 121% of GDP, with interest payments consuming 10.7% of government spending, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [12][13]. Stock Market and Sector Performance - Despite the cautious signals from the bond market, the stock market remains buoyant, with Apple reporting Q3 revenues of $94 billion and a 12% year-on-year increase in earnings per share, driven by the AI sector's strong performance [12][14]. - However, the overall performance of other industries remains lackluster, suggesting that the stock market's optimism may not be broadly supported across sectors [14]. Alternative Assets - Gold has gained popularity as a safe-haven asset, with central banks purchasing 166 tons in Q2 2025, and 95% of reserve managers expect to continue increasing their gold holdings [14][16]. - The market for stablecoins, which reached a valuation of $220 billion in April 2025, is also noteworthy, as it may disrupt traditional banking and international currency dynamics [14]. Conclusion - The apparent 3% GDP growth is more of a superficial achievement rather than a sign of robust recovery, with underlying economic indicators and early warning signs from Alaska suggesting potential challenges ahead [16][17].