研报 | 2025年AI需求强劲，预计2026年整体电子产业增长动能趋缓

Core Insights - The global electronics industry is experiencing a divergence in 2025, with AI Server demand driven by data center construction standing out, while traditional consumer electronics like smartphones, laptops, wearables, and TVs face growth challenges due to high inflation, lack of innovative products, and geopolitical uncertainties [2][3] - A slowdown in overall growth momentum is expected in 2026, marking a transition into a low-growth adjustment period for the electronics industry [2] Industry Trends - Significant early inventory pull-in has been observed across the electronics supply chain in 2025, with shipments of servers, tablets, laptops, monitors, and automotive products shifting from the traditional peak season in the second half to the first half of the year, leading to a near 50:50 shipment ratio for the year [2] - This early pull-in may boost revenue for manufacturers in the first half but poses risks for the second half, as a depletion of this momentum could result in shrinking order volumes and high channel inventory destocking pressures in Q4 [2] Market Forecast - AI Server shipments are projected to grow over 20% year-on-year in 2025, as cloud service providers focus capital expenditures on high-end NVIDIA GPUs and self-developed ASIC chips, which may crowd out budgets for general-purpose servers [2] - In contrast, the smartphone and laptop markets are expected to see flat shipments or only a 1-2% increase, while TV shipments may decline by 1.1%, and the wearables market could contract by 2.8% [3] - Looking ahead to 2026, most consumer electronics are anticipated to maintain flat shipments or experience mild growth of around 1%, with wearables and automotive markets potentially facing declines [3] - Even the previously strong-performing AI Server segment is expected to slow down after two years of rapid expansion and high base effects [3]