独家洞察 | 降息在招手，关税在「挖坑」？

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. inflation data indicates that inflation is not overheating, which, combined with weak employment data, has led the market to expect a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, estimated at 95% [4][5]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month, matching market expectations, and year-on-year it increased by 2.7%, which is below the expected 2.8% and unchanged from June [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is closely tied to inflation metrics like the PCE price index and CPI, with rate cuts being more likely when inflation is low or the economy is weak [4]. Group 2: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The U.S. government has imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on 69 countries, which could create new inflationary pressures despite stable July inflation data [5][6]. - As of June, U.S. consumers had borne about one-third of the tariff burden, but this is expected to shift significantly, with consumer responsibility for tariffs projected to rise from 22% to 67% by October [6]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that the core PCE inflation rate could increase by 0.16% in July and an additional 0.5% from August to December, potentially raising the December core PCE year-on-year inflation rate to 3.2% [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - While current inflation data supports a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the escalating tariff policies pose a risk of increasing consumer prices and inflation, creating uncertainty for monetary policy decisions [7].