孙正义，又“一把翻身”了

Core Insights - SoftBank's Vision Fund 2 has incurred a staggering loss of $22 billion, yet the soaring valuation of OpenAI has propelled SoftBank's stock to new heights, showcasing Masayoshi Son's ability to recover from crises [1][3]. Group 1: SoftBank's Stock Performance - On Tuesday, SoftBank's stock reached a historic high of 14,825 yen, with a market capitalization of $146 billion, reflecting a cumulative increase of approximately 75% this year, largely attributed to Son's investment in OpenAI [2]. - The valuation of OpenAI has surged to $500 billion, effectively doubling its recent valuation, which significantly enhances SoftBank's previous investment value of $9.7 billion in OpenAI [2][3]. Group 2: Vision Fund 2 Performance - Vision Fund 2 has performed poorly since its inception in 2019, with cumulative losses of $22 billion across investments in 280 different companies, representing nearly one-third of its invested capital [5]. - The investment in OpenAI is expected to alter this negative trajectory, as SoftBank employed a high-leverage strategy to acquire shares in OpenAI [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Risks - SoftBank's investment strategy involved complex financial maneuvers, including borrowing tens of billions from various sources, including Japanese banks and private equity firms like Apollo [6]. - An additional investment of $22.5 billion in OpenAI is anticipated by the end of the year, which, if completed, could result in SoftBank holding up to 12% of OpenAI [6][7]. - This investment could lead to potential profits before the funds are even deployed, contingent upon OpenAI's transition to a profit-generating structure [7]. Group 4: Governance and Concentration Risks - Unlike the first Vision Fund, Vision Fund 2 lacks external investors, with Son securing a 17.25% stake for himself, which ties his personal wealth closely to the fund's performance [8]. - Concerns have been raised regarding corporate governance, as Son's personal stake may diminish potential returns for SoftBank's shareholders [9]. - The concentration of investment in OpenAI could account for 34% of Vision Fund 2's total size, reminiscent of past failures like the WeWork investment, raising alarms about risk concentration [10].