李迅雷专栏 | 以旧换新：换什么乘数效应更大

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods starting in 2024, supported by a special long-term bond fund of 150 billion yuan, increasing to 300 billion yuan in 2025, aimed at boosting sales in various sectors including automobiles, home appliances, and home renovations [1][5]. Summary by Sections Policy Implementation - The "trade-in" policy will support a range of consumer goods, with a focus on automobiles, home appliances, home renovations, and electric bicycles, projected to drive sales exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024 [1][3]. - In the first half of 2023, 162 billion yuan in central funding led to over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales across various consumer categories [5][10]. Subsidy Details - The subsidy standards for 2025 include significant support for automobiles, home appliances, and digital products, with specific amounts allocated per category [4][6]. - For example, the subsidy for purchasing new energy vehicles can reach up to 20,000 yuan, while home appliances can receive up to 20% of the sales price as a subsidy [4][8]. Sales Impact - The trade-in policy is expected to have a multiplier effect on consumption, with retail sales of consumer goods growing by 5% in the first half of the year, contributing significantly to economic growth [10][11]. - The contribution of the trade-in policy to total retail sales is estimated to be between 0.74% and 0.96%, indicating a modest but positive impact [11][13]. Consumer Behavior - The article notes that lower-priced items tend to have a more significant impact on sales, with the trade-in program leading to increased sales in categories like home appliances and electric bicycles [18][19]. - Approximately 280 million individuals benefited from the trade-in subsidies, suggesting a broad reach, although the actual number of unique beneficiaries may be lower due to multiple claims by individuals [19][20]. Recommendations for Optimization - Suggestions include expanding the scope of the trade-in subsidies to include essential goods and services, which could benefit a wider demographic, particularly lower-income groups [23][24]. - The article emphasizes the need for a systematic approach to the trade-in policy, highlighting its potential indirect benefits on overall consumption beyond the initially targeted goods [24].