［8月13日］指数估值数据(A股港股继续上涨，回到4.5星；美元降息，对A股港股有利吗）

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are experiencing strong upward momentum, with significant increases in various indices, particularly in growth-oriented sectors, while value stocks remain relatively subdued [1][3][6][8]. Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks continue to rise, with the overall market returning to a rating of 4.5 stars [2]. - Major indices, including the CSI All Share Index, have surpassed their highest points from October 1 of the previous year [3]. - Both large-cap and small-cap stocks are on the rise, with small-cap stocks showing slightly higher gains [4][5]. - Growth style indices, such as the ChiNext, have seen substantial increases, while value style indices have lagged behind [6][7][8]. Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. economic data, including a lower-than-expected non-farm employment increase of 73,000 jobs in July, suggests potential signs of economic recession [16][17][20]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July rose by 2.7% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [21][22]. - The postponement of a 24% tariff between China and the U.S. for 90 days may help lower inflation rates [23][24]. - These economic indicators have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September [25]. Investment Implications - A decrease in interest rates is expected to positively impact asset prices, particularly benefiting bonds directly and stocks indirectly due to increased liquidity and lower funding costs [26][29]. - Non-dollar assets are likely to benefit even more during a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, as the dollar typically depreciates against other currencies [30][31]. - Historical trends indicate that the last bull market in Hong Kong stocks occurred during the 2020-2021 U.S. interest rate cut cycle [33]. - The current valuation levels of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are significantly higher than during the last rate cut cycle, which may reduce the extent of future benefits from rate cuts [38]. Interest Rate Context - Historically, the average yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has been between 2-3%, with recent rates hovering just above 4% [40][43]. - Interest rate fluctuations are a short- to medium-term factor affecting market dynamics, providing opportunities for buying low and selling high, but having less impact on long-term investment returns [45][48]. Additional Features - A new feature in the "Today’s Star" app allows users to access real-time ETF valuation data and identify undervalued ETFs [49][50].