【广发宏观钟林楠】如何理解信贷与M1的分化

Core Viewpoint - The social financing (社融) in July increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which is below the market average expectation of 1.41 trillion yuan, but shows a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion yuan. The stock growth rate of social financing is 9.0%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][6]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - The decrease in real credit amounted to 426.3 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year reduction of 345.5 billion yuan. This aligns with the decline in bill rates and the BCI (Business Climate Index) reflecting a weaker financing environment for enterprises [1][7]. - Factors contributing to the decline in real credit include seasonal variations in credit issuance, a tightening of production and capital expenditures by some enterprises due to "anti-involution" policies, and improved cash flow for SMEs following the implementation of regulations to clear overdue payments [1][7]. Government and Corporate Financing - Government bond financing increased by 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 555.9 billion yuan, reflecting active fiscal policies and a low base from the previous year. However, the base for government bonds will significantly increase starting in August, potentially shifting the impact from support to a drag on social financing [2][10]. - Corporate bond financing increased by 279.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.5 billion yuan, primarily due to a relatively loose liquidity environment and low financing costs for credit bonds [2][10]. Currency and Monetary Indicators - Foreign currency loans decreased by 8.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 80.4 billion yuan, indicating a generally positive expectation for exchange rates among enterprises [3][11]. - M1 growth rate was 5.6%, up by 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by factors such as low base effects and increased net fiscal spending on the real economy [3][12]. - M2 growth rate was 8.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, primarily driven by accelerated net fiscal spending on the real economy. There is a notable trend of residents moving deposits to non-bank financial institutions [4][13]. Overall Economic Outlook - The divergence between credit data and M1 growth suggests that both indicators may reflect macroeconomic conditions with some distortion. The low credit data in July raises the probability of monetary and financial policies stabilizing financing demand and promoting data recovery [5][14]. - The BCI for July was reported at 46.09, down from 49.12, indicating a deteriorating financing environment for enterprises [8].