【宏观】关税传导可控，降息预期升温——2025年7月美国CPI数据点评（高瑞东/刘星辰）

Core Viewpoint - July US inflation data aligns with expectations, indicating that tariff impacts are relatively controllable [5][7] Group 1: July US Inflation Data - July CPI year-on-year increased by 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month and slightly below the market expectation of 2.8% [4][7] - Month-on-month CPI adjusted for seasonal factors rose by 0.2%, down from 0.3% in the previous month, primarily due to a decline in energy prices [7] - Core CPI year-on-year rose to 3.1% from 2.9%, while month-on-month core CPI increased to 0.3% from 0.2% [4][7] Group 2: Inflation Structure and Tariff Impact - Commodity inflation did not accelerate, remaining stable at a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while service inflation showed an upward trend [7][8] - Prices for new and used cars stabilized, with month-on-month increases of 0% and 0.5%, respectively, indicating a gradual spread of tariff impacts [7] - Prices in previously increased categories such as clothing, home appliances, and entertainment began to decline, suggesting that companies are absorbing tariff costs due to slowing consumer demand [6][7] Group 3: Employment Data and Interest Rate Expectations - Weak employment data and moderate inflation have raised expectations for a rate cut in September to 94.3%, up from 85.9% the previous day [9] - The overall market response included a rise in US stocks and a slight decline in the dollar index following the inflation data release [9] - Despite the current inflation being manageable, there are concerns about potential upward pressure on inflation due to ongoing tariff impacts and tightening immigration policies affecting labor supply [9]