光大证券研究·2025-08-13 23:04Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing "stock-bond seesaw" phenomenon, highlighting the strong correlation between the 10Y government bond yield and the CSI 300 index, with a Pearson coefficient of 0.92 since early July 2023, indicating increased investor preference for risk assets [4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current stock market resembles last year's bond market, with the "wealth effect" being a significant driver for the bullish trend. However, this year's bond market lacks a similar wealth effect [5]. - As of the report date, the 10Y government bond yield stands at 1.73%, having increased by 5.2 basis points since the end of last year, prompting a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market as investors become more optimistic about equities [5][6]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - In the long term, it is unlikely that the bond market will consistently follow the stock market in pricing. Historical data shows that since 2016, there have been few instances where bond yields and stock indices moved in the same direction for extended periods [6][7]. - The correlation between the 10Y government bond yield and the CSI 300 index over the past 9.5 years is only 0.08, while the correlation with nominal GDP growth and the DR007 rate is significantly higher at 0.56 and 0.83, respectively. This indicates that bond pricing is more sensitive to economic conditions and monetary policy [7].