国泰海通｜宏观：“新宏观”30讲

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the macroeconomic analysis framework, highlighting the reallocation of global assets, changes in wealth distribution, and the rebalancing of major power dynamics in the current economic landscape [10][11]. Group 1: New Macro Framework - The "New Macro" framework represents a significant change in the analysis of macroeconomic conditions, reflecting the author's ten years of research experience [11]. - The framework emphasizes the decline of "trust" in global trade and currency systems, indicating a shift in economic relationships [11]. Group 2: Global Asset Repricing - The series of discussions includes topics on the evolution of currency as a "recording tool" and the historical context of monetary evolution [12]. - Insights into the potential space for gold as an investment and the fragile balance of dollar credit are also explored [12][13]. Group 3: Wealth Allocation Migration - The discussions cover the transition of household savings from "returning home" to "moving again," indicating changing patterns in wealth allocation [13]. - The impact of low interest rates on asset allocation strategies for both domestic and overseas residents is analyzed [13][14]. Group 4: Rebalancing of Major Powers - The analysis includes models for assessing U.S. Treasury rates and their implications for asset allocation [15]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve and its decision-making logic regarding interest rate cuts are examined [15]. - The article also discusses the risks associated with new tax cuts in the U.S. and the certainty of Chinese manufacturing in the current economic climate [15].