思科AI订单激增超20亿美元，2026财年指引“中规中矩”

Core Viewpoint - Cisco reported a net profit of $2.82 billion for Q4 of FY2025, reflecting a 31% year-over-year increase, and AI infrastructure orders exceeded $2 billion, significantly surpassing the initial target of $1 billion [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q4 was $0.99, slightly above the expected $0.98, with revenue of $14.7 billion, an 8% year-over-year increase, also exceeding the forecast of $14.62 billion [2] - Net profit for Q4 reached $2.82 billion, marking a 31% increase compared to the previous year [2] Business Segment Analysis - The networking business generated $7.63 billion in revenue, a 12% year-over-year increase, outperforming the analyst expectation of $7.34 billion, driven by strong demand for switches and routers due to AI workloads [6] - The security business, however, underperformed with quarterly revenue of $1.95 billion, achieving only a 9% year-over-year growth, falling short of the $2.11 billion market expectation [7] Future Outlook - Cisco's guidance for FY2026 includes revenue expectations of $59 billion to $60 billion and adjusted EPS between $4.00 and $4.06, aligning closely with analyst expectations [8] - The guidance indicates a cautious outlook, suggesting that despite the excitement around AI, there is no strong impetus for a significant upward revision of annual forecasts [9] AI Strategy Insights - The surge in AI infrastructure orders, totaling over $2 billion for FY2025, is highlighted as a key achievement, with $800 million in AI orders recorded in Q4 alone [2][10] - CEO Chuck Robbins emphasized the transformative potential of AI, positioning Cisco as a leader in the necessary architectural changes for the AI era [10] Risks and Challenges - High customer concentration is noted, with current AI orders primarily coming from a few "Webscale" giants, raising concerns about the ability to translate AI demand to broader enterprise customers [11] - Key AI projects are still in the planning phase, with no orders received yet, indicating potential delays in realizing projected revenues [11] - The sustainability of the explosive growth in AI orders is questioned, particularly if capital expenditure cycles among cloud giants slow down [11]