资金回表“加速度”——7月金融数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in M2 year-on-year is primarily driven by the active capital market, which has accelerated the return of funds to the banking system, leading to a record high in non-bank deposits for July [3][48]. Financial Data Summary - As of July 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 6.9%, while the social financing stock increased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0%, and M2 rose by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% [2][8]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 21,400 billion, the highest level recorded for the same period since 2015, with a year-on-year increase of 13,900 billion [3][48]. - The total social financing scale stock rose from 8.0% at the end of 2024 to 9.0% by July 2025, mainly due to the front-loading of government bond net financing [4][24]. Loan and Credit Analysis - Resident loans saw a significant decline, decreasing by 4,893 billion, which is a year-on-year reduction of 2,793 billion, reflecting a cautious attitude towards debt amid an unstable job market [3][14]. - Corporate credit showed a mixed trend, with short-term loans and bill financing performing well, while medium- to long-term loans remained weak, indicating a cautious stance on long-term investments [19][49]. - In July, new loans decreased by 500 billion year-on-year, primarily due to the reduction in resident loans [27][50]. Future Outlook - The introduction of loan interest subsidy policies may help lower the overall financing costs and stimulate credit growth through fiscal and financial collaboration [26][49]. - The government bond net financing has been a significant contributor to the increase in social financing, but this phase may be nearing its end as the base for government bond financing remains high [4][24].