GGII：锂盐价格持续调整，2026H2有望进入新一轮上涨周期

Core Viewpoint - The lithium salt market has experienced significant price fluctuations, with a dramatic drop of over 90% from late 2022 to mid-2025, followed by a recovery due to supply-demand adjustments and regulatory measures [5][10]. Group 1: Industry Overview - GGII is a third-party research and consulting institution focused on emerging industries in China, including lithium batteries, energy storage, hydrogen energy, and new materials [2]. - The 2025 High-Performance Lithium Battery Annual Conference will celebrate the 15th anniversary of GGII and include the Golden Ball Awards ceremony [3][4]. Group 2: Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices fell from over 600,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2022 to around 60,000 yuan/ton by June 2025, a decline exceeding 90%. As of July 2025, prices have rebounded to approximately 70,000 yuan/ton, marking a recovery of over 10% from the lowest point [5]. - GGII forecasts that the average price of lithium carbonate in the second half of 2025 will stabilize around 80,000 yuan/ton, with potential peaks reaching 85,000 to 90,000 yuan/ton due to easing supply-demand imbalances [5]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Analysis - Global demand for lithium from lithium batteries is expected to increase by approximately 350,000 tons LCE in 2025, driven by unexpected growth in the energy storage market, with a growth rate exceeding 30% [7]. - By 2026, global lithium demand is projected to reach 1.86 million tons, with an additional increase of about 370,000 tons, primarily due to rising demand for lithium salts in phosphate iron lithium cathode materials [7]. - On the supply side, global lithium supply is anticipated to increase by 320,000 tons in 2025, reaching 1.65 million tons, mainly from overseas lithium spodumene mines and salt lakes [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - GGII predicts that lithium salts may enter a new price increase cycle in the second half of 2026 due to reduced expansion rates in lithium mining projects, regulatory measures against disorderly capacity expansion, and expected rapid growth in overseas lithium battery demand [10].