高工锂电·2025-08-14 10:45Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dual dynamics of the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) market, highlighting the slowdown in domestic growth alongside strong export expansion, which is reshaping the competitive landscape and growth pathways for the battery industry [3][5]. Domestic Market Trends - In July, the production of new energy passenger vehicles reached approximately 1.15 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 22%, but a month-on-month decline of 3%. Retail sales were about 990,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 12% but a significant month-on-month drop of 11% [5][6]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market has remained stagnant between 50% and 54% for nearly a year, failing to surpass the 55% mark [5]. - The retail market for pure electric vehicles grew by about 25% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid sales saw a slight decline of 0.2%, and range-extended models dropped significantly by 11% [5][6]. - The market share of domestic brands in new energy vehicles stabilized at 70%, with a penetration rate of 75%, while luxury brands had a penetration rate of 30% and mainstream joint ventures only 7% [5][6]. Price Competition and Cost Pressures - The average price reduction for new energy vehicles in July was approximately 17,000 yuan, representing an 11.1% decrease, indicating ongoing price wars that are transferring cost pressures to battery manufacturers [6][7]. - The average price of plug-in hybrid models dropped by about 33,000 yuan, with a reduction rate of 14%, which is higher than that of pure electric vehicles [6][7]. Battery Supply Chain Dynamics - In July, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 81% of the domestic battery installations, with a year-on-year growth of 49%, while the installation of ternary batteries decreased by 4% [7]. - The market concentration of domestic power battery manufacturers continued to decline, with the top two companies' market share dropping by 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Export Growth and Global Market Trends - In July, exports of new energy passenger vehicles reached 210,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120%, accounting for 45% of total passenger vehicle exports [9][10]. - Exports of pure electric vehicles constituted 65% of new energy exports, with A00 and A0 class small pure electric vehicles' share rising from 26% to 43% [9][10]. - BYD's exports reached 80,000 units in July, a year-on-year increase of 160%, particularly strong in the European market, where sales grew by 470% [10][11]. - The overall export volume of domestic power batteries increased by approximately 48%, surpassing domestic sales for the first time [10]. High-End Market Opportunities - Despite price competition in the low-end market, the high-end market (vehicles priced above 250,000 yuan) is emerging as a new battleground, with several brands launching new models in this segment [11][12]. - The global production of ternary materials reached a historical high in July, indicating a strong demand for high-performance batteries [11][12]. Future Outlook - The transition of automotive consumption subsidies from direct grants to loan interest subsidies signals a shift in policy direction, with a focus on service consumption areas such as battery testing and maintenance [12]. - As some hybrid models begin to retract in the domestic market, automakers must find ways to expand their advantages over traditional fuel vehicles rather than competing within the pure electric segment [12].