国泰海通｜交运：反内卷保障良性竞争，监管力度决定持续性

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "anti-involution" phase, which is expected to alleviate short-term competitive pressures while ensuring healthy competition in the long term [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - From late 2019, leading companies initiated price competition to increase market share, leading to irrational price wars that pressured both performance and valuations in the express delivery sector [1]. - In April 2021, the State Post Bureau intervened to curb irrational price wars, which began to stabilize the market and improve profitability for leading companies by the end of 2021 [1]. - The introduction of policies to protect the rights of delivery personnel in June 2021 led to a collective price increase of 0.1 yuan per ticket by major e-commerce delivery companies, helping to alleviate cost pressures [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In 2025, the intensity of "anti-involution" efforts is expected to exceed expectations, with short-term competitive pressures easing and a focus on maintaining stable operations for grassroots outlets [2]. - The profitability of major express companies is projected to recover in the second half of 2025, contingent on the sustainability of price increases and regulatory support from the State Post Bureau [3]. - The net profit per ticket for major companies in 2024 is forecasted to decline, but a recovery is anticipated in the latter half of 2025 if price increases are maintained [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The regulatory strength of the State Post Bureau will play a crucial role in determining the sustainability of price increases and future profitability elasticity in the express delivery sector [3]. - Continuous regulatory efforts and policy guidance to protect the rights of delivery personnel are expected to enhance the potential for price increases and their sustainability [3].