大批股票解禁在即！CoreWeave高位股价还能撑多久？

Core Viewpoint - CoreWeave is facing a significant test as approximately 84% of its Class A shares will be unlocked, potentially leading to stock price volatility. Analysts generally hold a neutral rating on the stock, with its current market capitalization being about 36 times the expected adjusted revenue for the next four quarters, surpassing Nvidia's valuation of 31 times [1][3]. Stock Unlocking and Market Sentiment - The upcoming unlocking of shares primarily held by insiders, including CEO Mike Intrator and key supplier Nvidia, may lead to increased stock availability in the market, raising concerns about insider selling intentions due to concentrated ownership [3]. - This event will also assess the market's ongoing enthusiasm for AI infrastructure and whether supply-demand dynamics will continue to favor CoreWeave [4]. Financial Performance and Growth - Despite the unlocking pressure, CoreWeave reported strong business growth, with Q2 revenue reaching $1.2 billion, more than tripling year-over-year, driven by AI workload-specific data centers equipped with Nvidia's latest Blackwell chips [6]. - However, market disappointment arose from lower-than-expected revenue backlog growth and concerns over the company's plans to significantly increase capital expenditures in Q4. Following these developments, CoreWeave's stock plummeted nearly 21% in one day, although it has surged nearly 200% since its IPO in March [6]. Debt and Expansion Strategy - CoreWeave currently carries over $11 billion in total debt while consuming cash during its network expansion efforts. The CEO emphasized that expanding capacity and services is crucial for success in a structurally supply-constrained market [9]. - The company anticipates that its data center network's megawatt capacity will nearly double by the end of the year [9]. Client Base and Strategic Growth - CoreWeave's growth heavily relies on major clients like Microsoft and Meta, which have increased their capital expenditure forecasts and plan to maintain strong spending in the coming year. Following significant capital expenditure increases reported by these companies, CoreWeave's stock jumped nearly 11% in a single day [11]. - The company has also driven growth through large deals, such as a $4 billion expansion agreement with OpenAI and a $9 billion stock acquisition of Core Scientific, indicating an aggressive expansion strategy [11]. - Notably, CoreWeave's IPO was relatively small, involving only about 11% of its float, which has contributed to stock price increases, even after recent declines. Analysts believe that as long as demand for CoreWeave's computing power remains strong, the stock is likely to remain a popular investment, although increased stock availability will prompt closer scrutiny of the company's ability to meet ongoing AI computing demands and support its high valuation [11].