国泰海通 · 晨报0815｜物流仓储：反内卷保障良性竞争，监管力度决定持续性

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "anti-involution" measures in the express delivery industry, emphasizing that regulatory strength will determine the sustainability of price increases and future profitability [3][4][5]. Group 1: Industry Background - From late 2019, leading companies initiated price competition to increase market share, leading to irrational price wars that pressured performance and valuations in the express delivery sector [3]. - In early 2021, the instability of the express delivery network became evident, prompting the State Post Bureau to intervene and initiate "anti-involution" measures [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - In April 2021, the State Post Bureau took decisive action against irrational price wars, stabilizing the network and increasing the minimum price for express services in Yiwu from 0.8 yuan to 1.4 yuan [3]. - By September 2021, regulations in Zhejiang Province mandated that express services could not be offered below cost without justification, further supporting the "anti-involution" initiative [3]. Group 3: Recovery and Future Outlook - The article notes that the profitability of leading companies is expected to recover in 2022 as competition eases and the network stabilizes [3]. - In 2025, the intensity of "anti-involution" measures is anticipated to exceed expectations, with short-term competitive pressure easing and long-term healthy competition being maintained [4]. Group 4: Profitability and Pricing - The net profit per ticket for major companies in 2024 is projected to be 0.26 yuan for Zhongtong, 0.15 yuan for YTO, 0.08 yuan for Yunda, and 0.05 yuan for Shentong, with expected declines in the second half of 2024 and Q1 2025 [5]. - If price increases are sustained, the industry may exhibit profitability elasticity and valuation recovery, contingent on the regulatory environment [5].