美国PPI数据超预期 激进降息预期降温：申万期货早间评论-20250815

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. PPI data exceeded expectations, leading to a cooling of aggressive rate cut expectations [1][5] - The U.S. July PPI year-on-year increased to 3.3%, the highest level since February, significantly above the expected 2.5% [1][5] - The U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining at a low level since November 2021 [1] Group 2 - Lithium carbonate prices are supported by short-term supply shortages, with prices expected to fluctuate between 80,000 to 90,000 yuan/ton [2][21] - The export of lithium salts from Chile is projected to increase by 40% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year by July 2025 [2][21] - The short-term supply gap in lithium is expected to support prices, although there are risks of price corrections if market sentiment wanes [2][21] Group 3 - The double coke market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with limited contradictions in the fundamentals of coking coal [3][24] - Steel production remains stable, but the profitability of steel mills has decreased due to falling steel prices [3][24] - Investors are advised to operate cautiously in the current market environment due to increasing market volatility [3][24] Group 4 - The USDA report indicates a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, leading to a decrease in expected soybean production [4][26] - The report also lowered the export forecast for U.S. soybeans, contributing to a tightening of soybean futures inventory [4][26] - The market for soybean meal is expected to remain strong due to favorable external influences, while canola meal futures have seen a significant decline [4][26] Group 5 - The central bank of China announced a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to inject medium-term liquidity [6] - The market anticipates further liquidity support from the central bank following the expiration of 300 billion yuan MLF this month [6] Group 6 - The overall scale of computing power in China ranks second globally, with plans to introduce over ten systems related to data property rights [7] - Pilot projects for data industry clusters are being deployed in cities like Shanghai and Tianjin [7]