行业数据｜长、短期库存指标持续减负，房价同比指数边际改善

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the steady progress of the national economy and the real estate sector, driven by effective consumption policies and a focus on high-quality urban development, despite facing challenges such as seasonal fluctuations and inventory adjustments [2][25]. Economic Performance - In July 2025, the industrial production increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.3% [3]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [3]. - Fixed asset investment grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment rising by 6.2% [3]. - The total import and export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8.0% [3]. - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.2% [3]. Financial Data - M1 and M2 money supply grew by 5.6% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [4]. - In the first seven months, new loans increased by 12.8 trillion yuan, with long-term loans for households growing by 1.01 trillion yuan [5]. - The average interest rate for new personal housing loans was approximately 3.1%, maintaining a low level [5]. Real Estate Market Trends - In July, new housing transaction volumes experienced a seasonal decline, with major cities seeing a drop of over 20% [7]. - The nationwide sales area of new commercial housing was 57.09 million square meters, with a sales value of 532.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.8% [7]. - The inventory of unsold commercial housing decreased for five consecutive months, indicating reduced pressure on the industry [7]. Housing Price Dynamics - In July, the year-on-year decline in housing prices across 70 major cities narrowed, with first-tier cities experiencing a 1.1% decrease [12]. - Cities like Chengdu and Urumqi saw a year-on-year increase in new housing prices, signaling potential price stabilization [12][14]. Supply-Side Adjustments - From January to July, the construction area of residential buildings decreased by 9.4%, while new construction fell by 19.4% [16]. - The real estate development investment reached 53.58 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year, with a notable decline in land transaction volumes [24]. Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to enhance policies for urban development and housing supply, focusing on high-quality growth and efficient land use [25]. - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize with supportive measures for housing demand, including improved financing and urban renewal initiatives [26].