7月经济：“供强需弱”延续（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - Consumption and investment data have significantly weakened, but industrial production remains relatively resilient [3][88] - The economic indicators for July reflect some mid-term risks, but policies are being intensified, and economic growth is expected to remain within a reasonable range in the second half of the year [5][90] Consumption - In July, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value, primarily due to the slow disbursement of national subsidy funds [9][88] - The sales of furniture and home appliances saw significant declines, with furniture down 8.1 percentage points to 20.6% and home appliances down 3.7 percentage points to 28.7% [3][9] - Service consumption showed relative stability, with restaurant income slightly improving to 1.1% and cumulative service retail sales maintaining a high level at 5.2% year-on-year [3][9] Investment - Fixed asset investment in July fell sharply, reflecting short-term weather disturbances and mid-term impacts such as declining investment prices and the end of the equipment renewal cycle [4][13] - The year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment was 4.6 percentage points to -4.7%, marking the lowest level since Q1 2020 [4][13] - The construction progress was affected by extreme weather, with infrastructure and real estate investments experiencing greater declines than overall fixed investment [4][13] Real Estate - In July, real estate sales continued to decline, with corporate financing weakening and a lagging impact from reduced projects [4][89] - The growth rate of corporate credit financing dropped significantly by 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in nearly two years [4][89] - The sales area of commercial housing fell by 2.4 percentage points to -7.8%, indicating a slowdown in the release of pent-up demand [4][89] Production - Despite significant weaknesses in consumption and investment, industrial production maintained relative resilience, primarily due to improvements in export chain production [4][33] - The industrial added value year-on-year in July fell by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7%, but still remained at a high level [4][33] - Strong performance was noted in industries with robust export, such as black metal rolling and transportation equipment, while production in sectors like metal products and electrical machinery declined due to equipment renewal and internal competition [4][33] Summary - The economic indicators for July reflect some mid-term risks, with a continued pattern of weak domestic demand and strong external demand [5][90] - The second half of the year may see further declines in manufacturing and real estate investment, making it crucial to enhance service and infrastructure investment and stabilize consumer demand [5][90]