国泰海通｜地产：优化用途稳刚需，增加效用惠民

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the housing provident fund policy will have a significant supplementary effect on stabilizing housing prices, with potential for further optimization to encourage more individuals to consider purchasing homes [1][3]. Summary by Sections Housing Provident Fund in China - The housing provident fund system has rapidly developed over the past decade, benefiting more people with key characteristics including: 1. Continuous expansion of coverage and steady growth in contribution scale 2. High proportion of housing consumption in fund withdrawals, with an increasing withdrawal rate 3. Alignment of housing fund loans with real estate market cycles, with a gradual decline in personal housing loan rates - The system is viewed as a social housing security mechanism and plays a crucial role in stabilizing the real estate market and meeting reasonable housing demands as interest rates decline [1][2]. Potential Impact of Optimizing Provident Fund Policies - In the first half of 2025, various regions are expected to introduce policies to optimize the housing provident fund, such as lowering loan interest rates, increasing loan limits, reducing down payment ratios, and enhancing subsidies to activate potential purchasing power - The estimated contribution of these new policies to sales area in first-tier and new first-tier cities is modest, with increases of approximately 4.4% in Beijing, 1.8% in Shanghai, 2.8% in Shenzhen, 9.2% in Guangzhou, 5.4% in Hangzhou, and 7.9% in Chengdu - In contrast, the impact on second- and third-tier cities is more pronounced, with sales area increases nearing 50% in cities like Yantai and Zibo, and approximately 52.6% in Baoding - The analysis also indicates that after the policy adjustments, monthly mortgage payments in cities like Shanghai, Wuhan, Chongqing, Chengdu, and Jinan have become lower than monthly rents, suggesting a shift towards home buying over renting [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a "buy" rating, believing that the housing provident fund policy will effectively support the market as housing prices stabilize - The policies are primarily aimed at first-time homebuyers and those with urgent needs, providing a stabilizing effect - Future adjustments may include expanding the use of the provident fund for down payments, addressing operational bottlenecks, supporting inter-city loans, and optimizing standards for second-home loans, among other measures [3].