美国，“9月大抽水”

Core Viewpoint - A significant liquidity withdrawal is approaching the US money market due to actions by the US Treasury, tax payments, and bond settlements, but the market's resilience and the Federal Reserve's backup tools are likely to prevent a systemic financing crisis [1][10]. Group 1: Sources of "Liquidity Withdrawal" - The report identifies three main drivers contributing to the sharp decline in reserves in September, particularly around mid-month [2]. - The Treasury plans to rebuild its General Account (TGA) to a target level of $850 billion, which will inherently withdraw liquidity from the banking system [3]. - Quarterly tax payments are due on September 15, with corporate tax payments expected to lead to an inflow of approximately $100 billion or more into the TGA, followed by another $30 billion on the 16th [4]. - On the same day, there will be about $80 billion in net interest payments, with over $100 billion more due at the end of the month [5]. - The combined impact of tax and bond settlements on September 15 could withdraw nearly $200 billion from the banking system, reducing total reserves below $3 trillion mid-month and further to below $2.9 trillion by the end of the month [6]. Group 2: Market Resilience - The market has demonstrated its capacity to absorb liquidity changes, having managed to digest up to $350 billion in net short-term Treasury issuance in August with only a slight increase in the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) [8]. - The pace of Treasury issuance is expected to provide a buffer in the second half of September, with a net issuance of approximately $30 billion, turning negative later in the month as cash management bills mature [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Backup Tools - The report emphasizes the importance of the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) as a key tool to mitigate tail risks in the market, allowing eligible counterparties to borrow cash at a fixed rate [9]. - The Federal Reserve has been enhancing the effectiveness of the SRF, including adding morning operation windows to lower usage barriers, and market participants have shown willingness to utilize this tool [9]. - Additionally, the Fed may introduce term repo operations to provide longer-term liquidity support in response to fluctuations in the Treasury account [9]. Group 4: Market Pricing and Risk Assessment - The report indicates that while the ratio of reserves to total bank assets will drop below 12%, it is still expected to remain slightly above the "adequate level sweet spot" of 11%, indicating that while this is a low point, it is not yet in a danger zone [10]. - The September interest rate futures market suggests that SOFR is expected to be about 4 basis points higher than the federal funds rate, which is considered a fair pricing reflecting some "insurance premium" against mid-month reserve declines and quarter-end volatility [11].