【招银研究|宏观点评】经济减速慢行，政策空间打开——中国经济数据点评（2025年7月）

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for July indicates a slowdown in China's economy, with both supply and demand sides experiencing challenges, leading to a mixed outlook for various sectors [1][3]. Consumption - Retail sales growth in July was 3.7%, below the market expectation of 4.8%, influenced by extreme weather and other short-term factors [4][5]. - The growth rate of commodity consumption fell to 4%, with notable resilience in demand for essential goods like grain and oil (8.6%) and home appliances (28.7%) [4][5]. - Service retail sales growth slightly decreased to 5.2%, with cultural and tourism consumption supported by government subsidies [7][8]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was 1.6%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, with infrastructure investment at 7.3% and manufacturing investment at 6.2% [9][12]. - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12%, and sales volume and value of commercial housing also decreased significantly [12][14]. Import and Export - July saw better-than-expected performance in imports and exports, with export growth in dollar terms rising to 7.2%, driven by strong demand from non-US regions [18][19]. - Trade surplus expanded to $98.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [18][19]. Supply - Industrial production showed stable growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, supported by resilient exports and government policies [21][22]. - The service sector maintained a growth rate of 6.0%, although there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth [21][22]. Inflation - Price pressures remained, with CPI inflation at 0% and PPI inflation at -3.6%, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties [23][24]. Outlook - The economic outlook suggests rising uncertainties in external demand and persistent internal demand issues, with recent policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment expected to take effect gradually [25].