9.3阅兵在即，军工ETF“最后一舞”后记得及时离场！

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming military parade on September 3, 2025, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's Anti-Japanese War and the World Anti-Fascist War, is expected to significantly boost the military industry sector in the short term, but investors should be cautious of potential overexuberance and subsequent corrections [3][19]. Summary by Sections Military Parade Impact - Historical data indicates that military parades have a notable short-term positive effect on military stocks, with significant price increases observed in the months leading up to such events [4][7]. - For instance, the military industry index saw a maximum increase of 47% in July and August 2015 before the 70th anniversary parade, and a 16% increase before the 70th National Day parade in 2019 [4]. Performance of Military ETFs - As of mid-August 2025, military ETFs have shown strong performance, with returns exceeding 19% for several funds since the beginning of the year, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [16][17]. - The largest military ETF, the military leader ETF (512710.SH), reported a return of 14.8% year-to-date, while other military ETFs also demonstrated robust gains [17]. Valuation Trends - The military industry index has experienced a downward adjustment in valuation since 2017, with a mismatch between industry growth expectations and actual corporate earnings leading to a more rational valuation environment [9][12]. - Although military events can temporarily elevate valuations, the lack of sustained earnings support suggests that the overall downward trend in military sector valuations remains intact [12]. Cautionary Notes - The current rally in military stocks is primarily driven by the anticipation of the September 3 parade, and historical trends indicate that stocks often retreat after such events [19]. - As 2025 marks the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, there may be a reduction in demand for military orders in the latter half of the year, which could further impact stock performance [19].