TENCENT(HK:00700) 第一财经·2025-08-15 15:19Core Viewpoint - Despite a pullback in the Hong Kong stock market, southbound capital is accelerating its inflow, reaching a record high net purchase of 358.76 billion HKD on August 15, 2025, surpassing the total of the previous two weeks combined [3][4][5]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflow - Southbound capital has seen explosive growth in 2025, with cumulative net inflow exceeding 938.9 billion HKD within just eight months, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [3][5]. - The "barbell" strategy is being adopted by mainland investors, focusing on high-dividend financial stocks while also increasing holdings in technology and healthcare sectors [3][5][6]. - Key sectors attracting southbound capital include financials, information technology, and healthcare, with net purchases of 482.2 billion HKD, 317.48 billion HKD, and 238.54 billion HKD respectively in the past month [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent trend of "abandoning consumption and pursuing finance and healthcare" has influenced the performance of the Hong Kong stock market, with pharmaceutical and brokerage stocks showing strength despite overall market declines [6]. - Major holdings of southbound capital include Tencent Holdings at 556.4 billion HKD, China Mobile, and several major banks, each exceeding 200 billion HKD [6]. Group 3: Reasons for Inflow - Analysts attribute the accelerated inflow of southbound capital to valuation levels and an "asset shortage" in the market, as Hong Kong stocks remain undervalued despite recent gains [7]. - The high liquidity in mainland China, with M2 reaching 330 trillion RMB, has led to a search for effective investment opportunities, making Hong Kong stocks attractive for both stable returns and growth potential [7]. Group 4: Pricing Power and Market Influence - Southbound capital's share of trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached approximately 34.64% in 2024, up from 20%-30% in previous years [9]. - Despite the significant inflow, southbound capital does not possess "absolute pricing power" due to the dominant position of foreign capital and limitations in short-selling and participation in private placements [10]. - Southbound capital is gaining influence in certain sectors, particularly in consumer and dividend stocks, with holdings in food retail and telecommunications exceeding 50% [10][11].