美股IPO·2025-08-15 22:59Core Viewpoint - The global AI infrastructure boom is creating a significant supply-demand imbalance in the optical communication industry, leading to unprecedented profit opportunities for the entire supply chain, particularly benefiting upstream chip manufacturers [3][4]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The optical communication industry is experiencing a structural shortage driven by AI, which is expected to sustain its growth and profitability beyond market expectations [3]. - The demand from global hyperscale AI and cloud service providers is expected to support the continuous growth of Chinese optical transceiver manufacturers [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - Lumentum (LITE) reported impressive results with Q4 FY25 revenue of $480.7 million, a year-on-year increase of 55.9%, and a turnaround from a net loss of $252.5 million to a profit of $213.3 million [5]. - LITE's forward guidance for Q1 FY26 estimates revenue between $510 million and $540 million, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6%-12% and a year-on-year growth of 51%-60% [5]. - Coherent (COHR) showed stable growth, with Q4 FY25 revenue increasing by 16.4% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the data center segment [7]. Group 3: Chip Supply and Demand - The EML chip supply bottleneck is highlighting opportunities in the industry, with LITE achieving record EML chip shipments and nearly doubling revenue year-on-year [6]. - LITE is transitioning from 3-inch wafers to 4-inch wafers to alleviate chip shortages, with plans to upgrade to 6-inch wafers in the future [6]. - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a breakthrough year for the shipment of 100G and 200G laser chips [7]. Group 4: Data Center Business - The data center and communication business contributed 62% of total revenue, growing 39% year-on-year to $942 million [8]. - The company began shipping 1.6T transceivers in Q2 and expects significant revenue contributions from these products in FY26 [8].