中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略、房地产

Strategy - The AH premium has significantly decreased, dropping from a high of 144% in early April to 123% by the end of July, marking a new low since 2020, currently at 125% [5] - Notable companies like CATL and Hansoh Pharma are trading at significant discounts of 31% and 15% respectively compared to their Hong Kong counterparts [5] - The article discusses the pricing logic of the AH premium and its potential as a timing indicator for choosing between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] Macroeconomy - The U.S. economy is expected to recover as the worst phase may have passed, despite ongoing policy shocks affecting the recovery process [7] - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue approximately $1 trillion in new debt in Q3, leading to tighter liquidity and potential pressure on risk assets [7] - A long-term phase of fiscal dominance and monetary cooperation is anticipated, with a trend of U.S. dollar depreciation and increased opportunities in non-U.S. markets [7] - The expectation of a weaker dollar may benefit emerging markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [7] Strategy - The A-share market's margin financing balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan for the first time since July 2015, reaching 20,002.6 million yuan [9] - Compared to 2015, the current market has a larger scale, lower proportion of leveraged funds, and a more stable upward trend in margin financing [9] - The article suggests that the current market structure may resemble that of 2013, but with more aggressive policy support and improved liquidity [9] Strategy - The article suggests that the current A-share market resembles an "enhanced version of 2013," with small-cap and growth styles outperforming [13] - It recommends focusing on sectors with high growth and performance validation, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and non-ferrous metals [13] - The brokerage and insurance sectors are highlighted for their earnings elasticity and potential benefits from increased retail investment [13]