7月经济：“供强需弱”延续（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - Consumption and investment data have significantly weakened, but industrial production remains relatively resilient [3][88] - The economic indicators for July reflect some mid-term risks, but policies are being intensified, suggesting that economic growth will remain within a reasonable range in the second half of the year [5][90] Consumption - The social retail sales (社零) in July grew by 3.7%, lower than the expected 4.9% and previous value of 4.8%. The decline is attributed to the slow disbursement of national subsidy funds, particularly affecting "old-for-new" products [2][9] - Service consumption showed relative stability, with restaurant income slightly improving to 1.1% and cumulative service retail sales maintaining a high level at 5.2% year-on-year [3][88] - Categories such as furniture and home appliances saw significant declines in growth rates, with furniture down by 8.1 percentage points to 20.6% and home appliances down by 3.7 percentage points to 28.7% [3][9] Investment - Fixed asset investment in July fell sharply, reflecting short-term weather disturbances and mid-term impacts such as declining investment prices and a reduction in real estate projects. The monthly year-on-year decline was 4.6 percentage points to -4.7%, marking the lowest level since Q1 2020 [4][13] - The construction sector, particularly outdoor projects, was significantly affected by extreme weather, leading to a more substantial decline in infrastructure and real estate investments compared to overall fixed investment [4][13] - Manufacturing investment also saw a notable decline, with equipment purchase investment growth dropping by 11.3 percentage points to 6% [4][13] Real Estate - Real estate sales continued to decline in July, with corporate financing weakening and a lagging impact from reduced projects. The growth rate of corporate credit financing fell sharply by 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in two years [4][89] - New construction and completion areas also saw significant declines, with new starts down by 6% to -15.4% and completion areas down by 27.7% to -29.4% [4][89] - The average down payment ratio for home purchases decreased to 68.1%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][89] Production - Despite significant weaknesses in consumption and investment, industrial production maintained relative resilience, primarily due to improvements in export-related production chains. The industrial added value in July decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7% year-on-year, but still remained at a high level [4][33] - Strong performance was noted in industries such as black metal rolling (8.6%), transportation equipment (13.7%), and general equipment (8.4%), while sectors like metal products and electrical machinery faced declines due to equipment updates and internal competition [4][33] Summary - The economic landscape in July continued to show weak domestic demand and strong external demand. Although short-term factors significantly influenced July's data, there is potential for further declines in manufacturing and real estate investments in the second half of the year. It remains crucial to enhance service and infrastructure investments and stabilize consumer demand [5][90]