行业透视 | 京沪深刚需和豪宅新挂牌房源占比稳增

Core Viewpoint - The high-end real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to experience a steady decline in heat, driven by increased supply and competition from new high-quality properties in the new housing market [15]. Group 1: Market Trends - In July 2025, the second-hand housing market continued to show a gradual decline, with a 14% month-on-month decrease and a 9% year-on-year decrease in transaction volume across 30 key cities [2]. - The new listing volume in key cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou showed a seasonal decline in July, with only Shanghai maintaining the same level as the previous month [3][4]. - The overall new listing volume in July 2025 for Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen was significantly higher than the same period last year, with year-on-year increases exceeding 20% [4]. Group 2: Listing Structure - The listing activity in the mid-price segment (300-800 million) has decreased, while the low-end (below 300 million) and high-end (above 600 million) segments have seen an increase in listing activity [6][7]. - In Beijing, the proportion of listings in the 300-500 million range dropped by 0.98 percentage points, while the lower and higher price segments saw increases of 0.42 and 0.63 percentage points, respectively [6][7]. - In Hangzhou, the high-end listings (above 600 million) have shown a structural increase, with the proportion of listings in the 100-300 million range declining by 1.06 percentage points [10]. Group 3: Area Segment Changes - The most significant increases in listing proportions were observed in smaller area segments, particularly in Beijing (below 70 sqm), Shanghai (50-90 sqm), and Shenzhen (50-70 sqm) [8]. - Larger area segments (above 140 sqm) also showed a steady increase in listing proportions, with notable rises in Beijing (140-160 sqm), Shanghai (above 140 sqm), and Shenzhen (above 160 sqm) [8][13]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current changes in listing behavior among homeowners in different cities suggest a mixed market outlook, with both pressures and opportunities present [15]. - The high-end market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is likely to face steady declines due to increased supply and competition from new high-quality products, while the performance of the entry-level market will depend on the willingness of homeowners to reduce prices [15].