重要数据突然下滑，到底发生了什么？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent economic data shows a mixed picture, with CPI rising while new RMB loans have turned negative, indicating a complex economic situation [2][4][8] - In July, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month, marking a shift from a decline to an increase, which suggests initial success in combating deflation [4][6][7] - The negative new RMB loans of -500 billion yuan in July represent the first negative value since July 2005, highlighting a significant decline in overall loan activity [9][12][13] Group 2 - The decline in new loans is attributed to banks actively reducing bill financing, with a decrease of 4.5 trillion yuan in July compared to the previous year [15][16] - The reduction in bill financing is linked to the end of the half-year performance assessment for banks, leading to a decrease in loan volume as banks redeemed maturing bills [17][18] - The anti-involution movement has caused many enterprises to halt unrestrained capacity expansion, contributing to the significant drop in new loans [19][20][21] Group 3 - The article suggests that the reduction in new loans is understandable as the anti-involution aims to end deflation, albeit with short-term economic pain [23][24][25] - The article posits that to completely overcome deflation, there needs to be a substantial increase in government investment and leverage [29][30][31] - The article emphasizes the importance of repatriating foreign trade earnings that have been invested overseas, which is a significant factor in the ongoing deflationary environment [35][36][42] Group 4 - The article discusses the need for the government to increase its leverage to stimulate economic growth, as the current leverage ratio is lower than that of many developed countries [31][32] - It highlights that the return of foreign trade earnings is more critical than anti-involution or increasing fiscal stimulus to resolve deflation [42][43] - The article notes that the government has recognized this issue and is supporting capital markets to attract funds back into the domestic economy [43][45]