关税冲击上游价格——全球经济观察第8期【陈兴团队•财通宏观】

Global Asset Price Performance - Global long-term government bond yields have generally risen. Major global stock markets saw an increase this week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite rising by 0.9%, 1.7%, and 0.8% respectively, likely supported by stable interest rate cut expectations and a mild inflation rebound [2] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6 basis points, attributed to rising consumer inflation expectations in Michigan [2] - Oil prices declined this week, with the IEA predicting a slowdown in oil demand growth. Gold prices weakened, reaching a new low in the past two weeks. The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.4% this week [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Inflation remains stable, supporting interest rate cut expectations. Federal Reserve officials expressed caution regarding rate cuts, preferring to wait for more data before making decisions. U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the Fed is considering a 50 basis point cut in September [4] - The Bank of Japan is perceived to be slow in raising interest rates, with Japanese officials downplaying external political pressures on domestic monetary policy [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The July CPI year-on-year growth rate remained steady at 2.7%. Core services held steady, while energy and food prices cooled, countered by rising goods prices. The PPI year-on-year growth rate increased by 0.9 percentage points to 3.3%, with the largest month-on-month increase in three years [12] - Retail sales year-on-year growth decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5%. Core retail sales excluding automobiles saw a month-on-month growth of 0.3%. The Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 58.6, with one-year inflation expectations rising from 4.5% to 4.9% [14] - The imposition of tariffs on chips was noted, with Nvidia and AMD agreeing to pay 15% of their sales revenue from China to the U.S. government. Trump hinted at imposing chip tariffs potentially as high as 300% [14] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone industrial production showed a month-on-month decline of 1.3% in June, indicating a marginal weakening in industrial production, particularly in non-durable consumer goods and capital goods [26] - Japan's economy showed strong performance with a quarterly GDP growth of 0.3% and a year-on-year growth rate of 1%, driven by increased capital expenditure and strong exports [26]