Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the tariff suspension measures between China and the US on August 12, and the potential for easing trade risks based on recent trade agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU [7] - It highlights the ongoing economic situation in July, characterized by strong supply but weak demand, with consumer and investment data showing significant weakness while industrial production remains resilient [11] - The article notes that the weak Producer Price Index (PPI) is influenced by low capacity utilization rates in upstream and downstream sectors, indicating underlying economic challenges [12] Group 2 - The financial data for July indicates a rebound in M2 year-on-year growth, primarily driven by an active capital market [15] - The article mentions that the US has established a three-tiered tariff system as part of its trade agreements, with significant uncertainty regarding the execution of investment and procurement commitments [17][18] - It emphasizes the long-term and targeted nature of tariff leverage, with secondary and transshipment tariffs gradually taking shape [18]
申万宏观·周度研究成果(8.9-8.15)
赵伟宏观探索·2025-08-16 16:04