美联储！2万亿美债大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's asset portfolio could potentially provide the U.S. Treasury with $2 trillion in funding over the next two years, primarily through the purchase of short-term Treasury bills [3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Asset Portfolio Adjustment - According to Bank of America, if the Federal Reserve adjusts its bond portfolio structure, it may purchase nearly $2 trillion in short-term Treasury bills, which could cover all short-term debt issuance by the Treasury during the same period [3]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to realign its asset portfolio to better match its liabilities, thereby reducing interest rate risk and negative equity while shortening the duration of its liabilities [3][4]. - If the Federal Reserve reinvests the proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities and long-term Treasury bonds into short-term Treasury bills, it could create a new source of demand in the short-end market [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on Treasury and Market Demand - This shift is anticipated to ensure strong market demand for short-term government debt, alleviating concerns about liquidity shortages due to large-scale Treasury issuance [4]. - The estimated supply of short-term Treasury bills is projected to be $825 billion for fiscal year 2026 and $1.067 trillion for fiscal year 2027, assuming the Treasury maintains its long-term bond auction size until October 2026 [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Current Operations - The Federal Reserve is currently in a quantitative tightening phase, but recent comments from policymakers suggest discussions about asset portfolio adjustments may have occurred during the July FOMC meeting [4]. - The Dallas Fed's research indicates that matching asset and liability durations can effectively reduce income volatility, while a diversified asset portfolio can mitigate concentration risks [5]. Group 4: Future Expectations - Bank of America analysts expect the Federal Reserve to end its balance sheet reduction by December 2025 and subsequently begin adjusting its reinvestment strategy [6].