2025的一级市场真实现状：“熬鹰”

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex sentiment in the primary market as it transitions from a prolonged downturn to a cautiously optimistic environment, highlighting the mixed responses from various stakeholders including regulators, venture capitalists, and companies [2][3][4]. Regulatory Perspective - There are clear signs of policy warming from the regulatory side, with recent reforms aimed at encouraging and supporting the primary market after a period of tightening [3]. - However, the regulatory environment remains stringent, necessitating a balance between encouragement and strong oversight, particularly in light of the challenges faced by the secondary market [3][5]. Venture Capital Insights - The significant reduction in IPO expectations is likely to impact the investment activity of venture capital, especially private capital, as the narrowing of investment opportunities poses challenges [4]. - Despite a recent uptick in activity among venture capitalists, driven by policy changes and a fear of missing out, the overall environment remains cautious and not yet fully vibrant [4][5]. Company-Level Dynamics - Companies are experiencing a dilemma; many have been deterred from applying for IPOs during the downturn, yet face pressure from shareholders to exit [5]. - The current warming of policies is seen as a limited opportunity, with companies needing time to adapt and assess the stability of these changes [5][6]. Intermediary Institutions - Intermediary institutions are significantly affected by the current market conditions, facing reduced business opportunities and resulting in layoffs and salary cuts [6][7]. - The year 2024 is characterized as a critical period for these institutions, with many professionals either leaving the industry or remaining in a state of uncertainty [7][8]. Market Capacity and Demand - The mismatch between reduced capacity and current demand is a key factor in the current market situation, as the workforce was previously configured to handle a higher volume of IPOs than is currently expected [8][9]. - The development of the Beijing Stock Exchange has increased its share of applications, but the financial returns from these projects are significantly lower compared to past IPOs [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - The market is witnessing a pronounced "Matthew Effect," where larger firms are consolidating and gaining competitive advantages over smaller firms, particularly in the context of a sluggish IPO market [9][10]. - The disparity in capabilities among firms is becoming more pronounced, affecting their ability to compete effectively in the evolving landscape [9][10]. Overall Market Sentiment - The primary market appears to be in a phase of "waiting," with no immediate return to the previous IPO boom, and participants are focused on adapting to new regulatory conditions [10]. - The article suggests that the key to breaking the current deadlock lies in shifting business strategies from competing on price and quantity to enhancing internal capabilities and quality [10].