【招银研究|宏观点评】落实金融“反内卷”——《2025年二季度货币政策执行报告》解读

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that while there are significant internal and external risks to China's economy, the long-term positive support conditions and fundamental trends remain unchanged [2]. Group 1: Economic Situation Assessment - The report highlights that the global economic growth momentum is weak, with uncertainties in the recovery process, exacerbated by U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions, which may increase inflationary pressures [2]. - Domestically, the economy faces challenges such as insufficient effective demand, but there are solid supports for stable growth in the second half of the year [2]. - The inflation outlook has shifted from a low rebound to a more positive assessment, with policies aimed at boosting consumption expected to help prices recover reasonably [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - The monetary policy maintains a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on balancing financial support for the real economy while ensuring the health of the financial system [3]. - The report emphasizes the need to prevent "funds idling" and to ensure that the easing of monetary policy does not excessively narrow banks' net interest margins [3][4]. - The concept of "anti-involution" has become a key theme in financial policy, focusing on both price and quantity aspects to stabilize financing costs and promote lower overall financing costs [3]. Group 3: Structural Policies - The report reveals a significant evolution in the structure of credit allocation over the past decade, with a shift from heavy asset industries to high-quality development sectors, with loans in the "five major articles" now accounting for about 70% [5][6]. - The focus of future structural policies will be on inclusive finance, technological innovation, and expanding consumption, with an emphasis on supporting small and medium-sized enterprises and improving service supply [8][9]. - The report identifies challenges in service consumption supply, including insufficient total supply and quality issues, which need to be addressed to enhance consumer spending [8][9].