华尔街见闻·2025-08-17 12:49Core Viewpoint - The Chinese air conditioning market is experiencing a significant shift, with Xiaomi surpassing Gree in online sales market share for the first time, indicating a potential disruption in the long-standing duopoly of Midea and Gree [2][6][20]. Market Dynamics - In July 2025, Xiaomi's online sales market share reached 16.71%, overtaking Gree's 15.22%, while Midea remains the market leader [2]. - Xiaomi's year-on-year growth rate of 53.9% has positioned it as the third-largest player in the industry, highlighting its status as the only "high-growth" variable among the top three brands [2]. Competitive Strategies - Xiaomi's strategy focuses on leveraging software to redefine hardware value, transforming air conditioners into integral components of smart home ecosystems [7]. - The company has established a significant partnership with Changhong, contributing approximately 60% of its revenue, which has led to a compression of Changhong's profit margins [7][10]. Cost Constraints - A financial model indicates that the lowest possible retail price for a quality 1.5 HP air conditioner, under ideal conditions, cannot fall below 1900 yuan, suggesting that Xiaomi's pricing strategy is nearing its limits [8][10]. Traditional Giants' Advantages - Midea and Gree possess historical experience, absolute scale, and control over the supply chain, forming a robust defense against new entrants like Xiaomi [11][14]. - The market size is approximately 300 billion yuan, with Midea and Gree generating over 100 billion yuan in domestic sales, providing them with significant purchasing power and cost advantages [12][14]. Future Competition Landscape - The competition is expected to evolve from direct brand confrontations to a more nuanced "agent war" involving sub-brands, allowing traditional giants to maintain their premium positioning while competing with Xiaomi [17][18]. - Sub-brands like Midea's "Hualing" and Haier's "Tongshuai" have gained market share without undermining their parent brands, indicating a strategic shift in competitive tactics [17][18]. Conclusion on Market Structure - While Xiaomi's entry has altered the competitive landscape, the foundational structures of the industry, characterized by historical patterns, scale advantages, and technological control, remain intact [21][22]. - The current market dynamics suggest a more diverse and competitive environment for consumers, driven by the need for traditional players to adapt to new challenges [22].