【策略周报】股债跷跷板还能持续多久？

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent economic events and their implications for market sentiment, particularly focusing on the impact of government policies and economic indicators on consumption and investment trends. Group 1: Important Events Review - On August 12, the Ministry of Finance and nine other departments launched a loan interest subsidy policy for eight categories of service industry operators, aimed at stimulating consumption [2]. - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching June's figure and slightly below the expected 2.8%, indicating lower-than-expected tariff impacts on consumer prices and increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [2]. - A joint statement from China and the U.S. on August 12 announced a 90-day suspension of certain tariffs, with both sides retaining some tariffs, which may ease trade tensions temporarily [2]. - As of the end of July, China's RMB loan balance reached 268.51 trillion yuan, growing by 6.9% year-on-year, while the social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, up 9% year-on-year, indicating a decline in private credit demand as loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, marking the first monthly decline since August 2005 [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% month-on-month in July, the largest increase in three years, suggesting significant inflationary pressures potentially linked to tariffs [3]. - China's industrial value-added output grew by 5.7% year-on-year in July, a slowdown of 1.1 percentage points from June, while retail sales increased by 3.7%, also down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Fixed asset investment in China for the first seven months of the year grew by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The bond market experienced a downturn due to the continuous rise in the stock market, reflecting a significant stock-bond relationship. The introduction of the loan subsidy policy and lower-than-expected U.S. CPI boosted stock market risk appetite [5]. - The A-share market continued to rise, driven by a global technology wave and favorable policies, particularly in the AI sector, which is expected to see a surge in demand for computing power and strengthen the hardware supply chain [6].