中金 | AH比较系列（3）：买A还是买港？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance in the second half of the year, outperforming the Hong Kong stock market, driven by positive changes in market liquidity and supportive policies [2][3]. A-share and Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - A-share indices have reached nearly four-year highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing the 3700 mark and daily trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [2]. - The A-share market has seen year-to-date gains of 10% for the Shanghai Composite Index and 16% for the total A-share index, while the Hong Kong market has recorded increases of 5.0% and 4.2% for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, respectively [2]. - The improvement in A-shares is attributed to a better capital structure and increased market participation, supported by policies aimed at reducing competition and enhancing profitability [2][3]. Sector Analysis - A-shares have a higher proportion of profits from the midstream manufacturing sector (12.3%) compared to Hong Kong (5.8%), while both markets show similar contributions from consumer sectors [3]. - The financial sector dominates both markets, with over 25% in A-shares and 30% in Hong Kong, while A-shares have significant contributions from consumer, technology, and midstream manufacturing sectors [3]. Hard Technology vs. Soft Innovation - A-shares excel in hard technology sectors like semiconductors and electronics, benefiting from high industry demand and policy support, contributing approximately 3.5% to overall profits [4]. - Hong Kong's soft innovation sector, particularly in internet companies, has gained traction due to the AI technology revolution, contributing 13.5% to profits [4]. Consumer Trends - A-shares focus on traditional consumer sectors like food and beverage, with stable profit contributions, while Hong Kong has seen a rise in new consumption models, particularly in dining and retail [5]. - The A-share liquor industry has consistently contributed around 2.5% to overall profits, while new consumption sectors in Hong Kong have experienced over 200% profit growth in the past three years [5]. New Energy Sector - A-shares are strong in the upstream new energy sector, particularly in battery and photovoltaic equipment, although profitability has faced challenges due to supply-demand imbalances [6]. - Hong Kong's new energy sector is primarily focused on downstream electric vehicle manufacturers, which have shown resilience and growth potential [6]. Pharmaceutical Sector Comparison - The A-share pharmaceutical sector has a more complete industry chain, contributing 3% to overall profits, while Hong Kong focuses on innovative drug development, with profits increasing from 0.4% in 2022 to 1.6% in 2024 [7]. Future Market Outlook - The influx of new capital into the A-share market is expected to continue, with A-shares likely to outperform Hong Kong stocks if domestic investors increase their participation and core industry pressures ease [14][15]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors with high growth potential, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy, particularly in light of supportive policies [15].