【石油化工】海外油气巨头25H1业绩下滑，IEA再度下调25年原油需求预期——行业周报第416期（赵乃迪/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major international oil companies in H1 2025 has been significantly impacted by falling oil prices and low refining margins, leading to a decline in net profits across the board [4]. Group 1: Performance Overview - In H1 2025, the net profits of major oil companies such as ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and Total fell by 15.3%, 39.7%, 22.9%, and 31.2% respectively, while BP's base reset cost profit decreased by 31.8% [4]. - The average Brent crude oil price in H1 2025 was $70.81 per barrel, a decrease of 15.1% year-on-year, with Q2 averaging $66.71 per barrel, down 21.5% [4]. - Refining margins for Shell, Total, and BP dropped by 24.4%, 44.4%, and 26.2% respectively, indicating a depressed refining market and reduced profitability [4]. Group 2: Production and Cost Analysis - The total oil and gas equivalent production of the five major oil companies grew by 2.96% year-on-year in H1 2025, but there was significant variation in production growth among the companies [5]. - ExxonMobil achieved a 15.5% increase in crude oil production and a 6.9% increase in natural gas production, benefiting from rapid output from the Guyana oil and gas block [5]. - Cost control measures resulted in varying changes in production costs, with ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP, and Total reporting costs of $-4.4, $+1.2, $-3.9, $+3.5, and $-2.6 per barrel of oil equivalent respectively [5]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Outlook - The IEA has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025-2026 by 20,000 barrels per day, expecting an increase of 680,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 700,000 barrels per day in 2026, primarily due to weaker demand from emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil [6]. - The IEA has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth in 2025 by 370,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day, with OPEC+ expected to increase production by 1.2 million barrels per day [6]. - Despite the oversupply putting pressure on oil prices, geopolitical risks from sanctions on Russia and Iran continue to create uncertainty in the market [6].