美股IPO·2025-08-18 03:54Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that the competition in China's food delivery market is more intense than expected, leading to significant financial losses for major players like JD, Alibaba, and Meituan [8][10]. Group 1: JD's Performance - JD's second-quarter losses in food delivery investments reached 13 billion yuan, exceeding Morgan Stanley's forecast of 10 billion yuan by 30% [2][6]. - The revenue from JD's new business segment surged by 198.8% year-on-year, primarily driven by food delivery, but operational losses expanded dramatically from 700 million yuan to 14.8 billion yuan [4][5]. - JD's second-quarter loss per order is estimated at 10 yuan, which could indicate a challenging outlook for profitability [7][10]. Group 2: Alibaba's Strategy - Based on JD's performance, Morgan Stanley has raised Alibaba's third-quarter food delivery loss forecast to over 30 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 17 billion yuan [2][7]. - Alibaba is expected to continue investing in its food delivery business, preparing for a long-term competitive battle, contrasting with JD's potential withdrawal from aggressive pricing strategies [11][14]. - The increase in Alibaba's daily active users and merchant transactions suggests that its strategy may be yielding positive results despite the losses [14]. Group 3: Meituan's Challenges - Meituan, as the traditional market leader, faces the most severe challenges, with both market share and profitability at risk due to the changing competitive landscape [11][14]. - The shift in market share dynamics could significantly impact Meituan, which has historically captured a large portion of industry profits [14]. - Morgan Stanley warns that a decline in the industry's profit pool and Meituan's market share could lead to sustained pressure on its stock price [14].