牛市谁看基本面啊

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting the historical performance and potential market overheating indicators, while also noting the mixed sentiments among retail and institutional investors. Market Performance - The A-share market has seen significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 30% over the past year, reflecting a strong bullish trend [8][22]. - On the latest trading day, major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.85%, the Shenzhen Component up 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.84% [22]. Market Sentiment and Indicators - Market participants are experiencing anxiety about potential corrections in a bull market, with some investors feeling they have missed out on gains [1][3]. - Key indicators of market overheating include a 5-day average turnover rate reaching 1.95%, approaching the 2% warning threshold, which historically precedes market pullbacks [10]. - Another sentiment indicator shows that the market has been in a strong state since mid-April, with the overbought/oversold index nearing 16%, indicating potential technical adjustment pressure if it exceeds 20% [12]. Institutional Insights - Institutions are optimistic about the market, with projections suggesting the Shanghai Composite Index could reach 4000 points [17]. - A survey of various institutions revealed a range of market sentiment scores, with most institutions rating the market's current state between 7.1 and 8.9 out of 10 [18]. Sector Performance - The electronic and communication sectors saw significant net inflows, while the real estate and basic chemical sectors experienced net outflows [34]. - Specific stocks such as ZTE Corporation and Northern Rare Earth saw the highest net inflows, indicating strong institutional interest [34]. Retail Investor Behavior - Retail investor enthusiasm appears subdued, with reports indicating low participation in margin trading and limited floating profits among retail clients [14][15]. - Despite the overall market rally, there is a notable lack of retail investor engagement compared to previous market cycles [14]. Conclusion - The A-share market is currently in a bullish phase, with significant institutional support and positive sentiment, although caution is advised due to potential overheating indicators and mixed retail investor engagement [10][12][22].