M1-M2剪刀差收窄！牛市要来了吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent financial statistics released by the central bank, highlighting the growth rates of M1 and M2, and the implications of the M1-M2 spread as an economic indicator [4]. Group 1: Financial Statistics - As of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. The narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%. The currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.28 trillion yuan, increasing by 11.8% [4]. - The M1-M2 spread, which reflects the difference in year-on-year growth rates between M1 and M2, has narrowed significantly this year, indicating an increase in liquidity and market confidence [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Implications - A positive M1-M2 spread suggests an increase in "active money," indicating stronger consumer and investment sentiment among businesses and households. Conversely, a negative spread indicates a rise in "inactive money," suggesting weaker economic activity [4]. - Historical data shows that prior to several bull markets, the M1-M2 spread has narrowed. For instance, before the 2007 bull market, the spread improved from -8.58% to 4.68%, and before the 2015 bull market, it narrowed from -9.4% to -6.1% [5]. - Currently, the M1-M2 spread has improved from -10.1% in September 2024 to -3.2% in July 2025, coinciding with positive performance in the stock market, as evidenced by the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closing at 4202 points, surpassing the previous year's levels [5].