研客专栏 | 棕榈油能重现2024年那波牛市吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent upward trends in palm oil and canola oil prices, driven by various market factors including production and export data, as well as government policies affecting supply and demand dynamics [4][5][11]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - The significant rise in palm oil prices was initiated by the MPOB monthly report, which showed production and export data that were less negative than expected, reversing the market sentiment after a two-week high adjustment [5][8]. - The MPOB report indicated that Malaysia's palm oil production in July was 1.81 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.09%, while exports reached 1.31 million tons, up 3.82% [5][6]. - Concerns over future palm oil production in Indonesia have been heightened due to the government's seizure of illegal oil palm plantations, which could further tighten supply and support price increases [10][14]. Group 2: Canola Oil Market Influences - Canola oil prices also experienced a significant increase due to rumors of high anti-dumping deposit rates on Canadian canola seeds, which were later confirmed by the Ministry of Commerce [11][12]. - The Ministry announced a temporary anti-dumping measure, imposing a 75.8% deposit on imports of Canadian canola seeds starting from August 14, 2025, which is expected to suppress future imports and tighten domestic supply [11][12]. - Despite some rumors of Australian canola seed purchases, the supply from Australia is unlikely to fully compensate for the loss of Canadian imports, leading to a clear upward trend in canola oil prices [12][14]. Group 3: Overall Market Outlook - The combination of positive indicators for Malaysian palm oil production and export, alongside tightening supply from Indonesia and the impact of anti-dumping measures on canola oil, suggests a bullish outlook for the oilseed market [14]. - Current support levels for various oils are identified, with soybean oil at 8200, palm oil at 9000, and canola oil at 9800, while resistance levels are projected at 9000, 10000, and 10000-10300 respectively [14].