国泰海通｜策略：2025中国股市上升的关键动力二：资本市场制度改革

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that institutional changes significantly impact stock market valuations in China, with the new round of capital market reforms aimed at "increasing investor returns" positively influencing perceptions of Chinese assets and risk assessments [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Market Reform - The capital market reform aims to enhance the investability of the Chinese stock market and improve societal perceptions of Chinese assets. Past issues such as poor corporate governance and insufficient shareholder returns have hindered investor willingness to enter the market [2]. - Key reforms include the implementation of stricter regulations on delisting, share reduction, trading supervision, and penalties for financial fraud, which collectively enhance the investability of the Chinese stock market [2]. - The focus of the capital market has shifted towards prioritizing investor returns, with measures such as mandatory dividends and incentives for share buybacks being introduced [2]. Group 2: Risk Evaluation and Market Stability - The establishment of mechanisms to stabilize the market serves as a "firewall" that systematically reduces risk evaluations of the Chinese stock market, encouraging long-term capital inflows [3]. - Regulatory requirements for large state-owned insurance companies to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares, along with innovations in equity investment reforms, are part of the efforts to create a "long money, long investment" system [3]. - The interconnectedness of market stabilization mechanisms, long-term investments, and improved regulations creates a robust framework for both risk management and long-term market development [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The combination of declining risk-free returns and capital market reforms is identified as a key driver for the anticipated rise of the Chinese stock market, referred to as the "transformation bull market" [4]. - Historical instances of stock market rallies linked to capital market reforms, such as the 2005 split share structure reform and the 2019 registration system reform, support the belief in the potential for a significant market upturn [4]. - The article asserts that the evolving perceptions of stock prices reflect investors' expectations for the future, highlighting the stock market's role in boosting societal confidence and optimizing resource allocation [4].