中金：美联储为何不能大幅降息？

Core Viewpoint - The market has significantly increased the pricing for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but internal divisions within the Fed suggest a cautious approach to any substantial easing, primarily due to the risk of "stagflation" rather than a straightforward demand decline [2][13]. Group 1: Reasons Against Significant Rate Cuts - Reason 1: Rate cuts cannot address "stagflation" as the U.S. economy faces increasing downward pressure on total demand, with private sector final sales declining at an annualized rate of 1.2% in Q2, the lowest level in 2023 [2][8]. - Reason 2: The assumption of "ignoring inflation" is invalid, as tariff-induced inflation is not fully passed on to consumers, and a significant rate cut could lead to widespread price increases, exacerbating inflation rather than alleviating it [8][9]. - Reason 3: Historical data shows that the Fed has only cut rates once in an environment where core CPI growth exceeded 3%, and a repeat of such a scenario could lead to increased yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, indicating market skepticism about the Fed's ability to control inflation [9][12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Employment growth has slowed, with an average of 35,000 new non-farm jobs added over the last three months, indicating a cooling labor market [2][8]. - Inflation pressures are still building, as evidenced by the rebound in core CPI and PPI growth rates in July, alongside a decline in consumer confidence but a rise in inflation expectations [2][6]. - The potential for significant market volatility exists if the Fed were to implement large rate cuts, which could undermine trust in the Fed's inflation control measures and lead to a detrimental cycle of economic instability [12][13].